Manager Bounce

Does sacking the manager work?

Every mid-season change of manager in the Premier League and EFL, 2021-22 to 2025-26: league points per game in the 10 games before and after, against clubs on the same run of form that kept their manager.

Changed manager +0.28 0.93 → 1.21 pts/game
Kept manager, same form +0.31 pts/game over the same stretch

No bounce beyond what was coming anyway.

Difference −0.02 pts/game, likely between −0.07 and +0.03, from 212 changes.

Why? Clubs change manager after a bad run, and bad runs usually end on their own. The Premier League's own look at the bounce found the same jump in results, but didn't compare with clubs that kept their manager.

The changes

Points per game. If kept: what clubs on the same run of form averaged over the same stretch when they kept their manager.

  • Burnley Scott Parker out · Mike Jackson (interim) in 30 Apr 2026 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.50
    After
    0.50
    If kept
    –
    Only 4 games left that season
  • Chelsea Liam Rosenior out · Calum McFarlane (interim) in 22 Apr 2026 · 7th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    1.00
    If kept
    –
    Only 4 games left that season
  • Tottenham Hotspur Igor Tudor out · Roberto De Zerbi in 29 Mar 2026 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.30
    After
    1.57
    If kept
    0.91
    Only 7 games left that season
  • Nottingham Forest Sean Dyche out · Vítor Pereira in 12 Feb 2026 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.90
    After
    1.60
    If kept
    1.25
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Tottenham Hotspur Thomas Frank out · Igor Tudor in 11 Feb 2026 · 16th at the time
    Before
    0.70
    After
    0.90
    If kept
    1.19
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Manchester United Ruben Amorim out · Michael Carrick in 5 Jan 2026 · 6th at the time
    Before
    1.40
    After
    2.30
    If kept
    1.44
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Chelsea Enzo Maresca out · Liam Rosenior in 1 Jan 2026 · 5th at the time
    Before
    1.60
    After
    1.80
    If kept
    1.29
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers Vítor Pereira out · Rob Edwards in 2 Nov 2025 · 20th at the time
    Before
    0.20
    After
    0.40
    If kept
    0.81
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Nottingham Forest Ange Postecoglou out · Sean Dyche in 18 Oct 2025 · 18th at the time
    Before
    0.71
    After
    1.30
    If kept
    1.21
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • West Ham United Graham Potter out · Nuno Espírito Santo in 27 Sept 2025 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.60
    After
    1.00
    If kept
    1.09
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Nottingham Forest Nuno Espírito Santo out · Ange Postecoglou in 8 Sept 2025 · 10th at the time
    Before
    1.33
    After
    0.80
    If kept
    –
    About the same as keeping the manager
Earlier seasons (35)
  • Southampton Ivan Jurić out · Simon Rusk (interim) in 7 Apr 2025 · 20th at the time
    Before
    0.40
    After
    0.29
    If kept
    1.01
    Only 7 games left that season
  • Everton Sean Dyche out · David Moyes in (after caretaker Leighton Baines) 9 Jan 2025 · 16th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    1.70
    If kept
    1.29
    Better than keeping the manager
  • West Ham United Julen Lopetegui out · Graham Potter in 8 Jan 2025 · 14th at the time
    Before
    1.20
    After
    1.10
    If kept
    1.39
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers Gary O'Neil out · Vítor Pereira in 15 Dec 2024 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    1.30
    If kept
    1.29
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Southampton Russell Martin out · Ivan Jurić in (after caretaker Simon Rusk) 15 Dec 2024 · 20th at the time
    Before
    0.40
    After
    0.40
    If kept
    1.01
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Leicester City Steve Cooper out · Ruud van Nistelrooy in (after caretaker Ben Dawson) 24 Nov 2024 · 16th at the time
    Before
    0.90
    After
    0.40
    If kept
    1.25
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Manchester United Erik ten Hag out · Ruben Amorim in (after caretaker Ruud van Nistelrooy) 28 Oct 2024 · 14th at the time
    Before
    1.22
    After
    1.10
    If kept
    1.26
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Crystal Palace Roy Hodgson out · Oliver Glasner in 19 Feb 2024 · 16th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    1.50
    If kept
    1.29
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Nottingham Forest Steve Cooper out · Nuno Espírito Santo in 19 Dec 2023 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.60
    After
    1.00
    If kept
    1.09
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Sheffield United Paul Heckingbottom out · Chris Wilder in 5 Dec 2023 · 20th at the time
    Before
    0.40
    After
    0.80
    If kept
    1.01
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Leeds United Javi Gracia out · Sam Allardyce in 3 May 2023 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    0.25
    If kept
    –
    Only 4 games left that season
  • Tottenham Hotspur Cristian Stellini (interim) out · Ryan Mason (interim) in 24 Apr 2023 · 5th at the time
    Before
    1.40
    After
    1.17
    If kept
    1.44
    Only 6 games left that season
  • Leicester City Brendan Rodgers out · Dean Smith in (after caretaker Adam Sadler) 2 Apr 2023 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    0.90
    If kept
    1.29
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Chelsea Graham Potter out · Frank Lampard (interim) in (after caretaker Bruno Saltor) 2 Apr 2023 · 11th at the time
    Before
    1.30
    After
    0.60
    If kept
    1.34
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Tottenham Hotspur Antonio Conte out · Cristian Stellini (interim) in 26 Mar 2023 · 4th at the time
    Before
    1.60
    After
    1.10
    If kept
    1.29
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Crystal Palace Patrick Vieira out · Roy Hodgson (interim) in (after caretaker Paddy McCarthy) 17 Mar 2023 · 12th at the time
    Before
    0.50
    After
    1.70
    If kept
    1.11
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Southampton Nathan Jones out · Rubén Sellés in 12 Feb 2023 · 20th at the time
    Before
    0.30
    After
    0.90
    If kept
    0.91
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Leeds United Jesse Marsch out · Javi Gracia in (after caretaker Michael Skubala) 6 Feb 2023 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.90
    After
    1.10
    If kept
    1.25
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Everton Frank Lampard out · Sean Dyche in 23 Jan 2023 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.50
    After
    1.20
    If kept
    1.11
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Southampton Ralph Hasenhüttl out · Nathan Jones in 7 Nov 2022 · 18th at the time
    Before
    0.80
    After
    0.60
    If kept
    1.29
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Aston Villa Steven Gerrard out · Unai Emery in (after caretaker Aaron Danks) 20 Oct 2022 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.90
    After
    1.90
    If kept
    1.25
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers Bruno Lage out · Julen Lopetegui in (after caretaker Steve Davis) 2 Oct 2022 · 18th at the time
    Before
    0.75
    After
    0.80
    If kept
    1.24
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Brighton & Hove Albion Graham Potter out · Roberto De Zerbi in 8 Sept 2022 · 4th at the time
    Before
    2.17
    After
    1.10
    If kept
    1.86
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Chelsea Thomas Tuchel out · Graham Potter in 7 Sept 2022 · 6th at the time
    Before
    1.67
    After
    1.50
    If kept
    1.36
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Bournemouth Scott Parker out · Gary O'Neil in 30 Aug 2022 · 17th at the time
    Before
    0.75
    After
    1.00
    If kept
    –
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Burnley Sean Dyche out · Mike Jackson (lead caretaker) in 15 Apr 2022 · 18th at the time
    Before
    1.00
    After
    1.38
    If kept
    1.35
    Only 8 games left that season
  • Leeds United Marcelo Bielsa out · Jesse Marsch in 27 Feb 2022 · 16th at the time
    Before
    0.70
    After
    1.10
    If kept
    1.19
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Watford Claudio Ranieri out · Roy Hodgson in 24 Jan 2022 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.40
    After
    0.80
    If kept
    1.01
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Everton Rafael Benítez out · Frank Lampard in (after caretaker Duncan Ferguson) 16 Jan 2022 · 15th at the time
    Before
    0.50
    After
    0.60
    If kept
    1.11
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Manchester United Ole Gunnar Solskjær out · Ralf Rangnick (interim) in (after caretaker Michael Carrick) 21 Nov 2021 · 7th at the time
    Before
    1.30
    After
    2.10
    If kept
    1.34
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Aston Villa Dean Smith out · Steven Gerrard in 7 Nov 2021 · 15th at the time
    Before
    1.00
    After
    1.60
    If kept
    1.35
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Norwich City Daniel Farke out · Dean Smith in 6 Nov 2021 · 20th at the time
    Before
    0.20
    After
    0.80
    If kept
    0.81
    About the same as keeping the manager
  • Tottenham Hotspur Nuno Espírito Santo out · Antonio Conte in 1 Nov 2021 · 8th at the time
    Before
    1.50
    After
    2.10
    If kept
    1.54
    Better than keeping the manager
  • Newcastle United Steve Bruce out · Eddie Howe in (after caretaker Graeme Jones) 20 Oct 2021 · 19th at the time
    Before
    0.38
    After
    0.70
    If kept
    0.99
    Worse than keeping the manager
  • Watford Xisco Muñoz out · Claudio Ranieri in 3 Oct 2021 · 14th at the time
    Before
    1.00
    After
    0.60
    If kept
    1.35
    Worse than keeping the manager